Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.112077 2.239210 2.373182 2.525425 2.694303 2.876674 3.089561
2025-08-24 1.905916 2.078307 2.268741 2.496600 2.764392 3.072444 3.458604
2025-08-31 1.788977 1.988374 2.215919 2.498374 2.844817 3.263221 3.818810
2025-09-07 1.708203 1.927566 2.184514 2.513269 2.931361 3.458285 4.195707
2025-09-14 1.617803 1.846248 2.119135 2.476480 2.944015 3.553858 4.445595
2025-09-21 1.539815 1.773753 2.057820 2.437205 2.945921 3.629983 4.671103
2025-09-28 1.468765 1.705120 1.996086 2.391238 2.932437 3.679931 4.859541
2025-10-05 1.441173 1.688761 1.998646 2.428185 3.032185 3.895296 5.323474
2025-10-12 1.417292 1.675240 2.003138 2.466560 3.135029 4.123022 5.839223
2025-10-19 1.392286 1.658577 2.001867 2.495776 3.225387 4.339063 6.368798
2025-10-26 1.353912 1.622431 1.972319 2.482686 3.250781 4.453743 6.734636
2025-11-02 1.318432 1.588516 1.943934 2.469047 3.273332 4.564444 7.109822
2025-11-09 1.279755 1.549466 1.907569 2.442858 3.276109 4.645016 7.446995
2025-11-16 1.243159 1.511932 1.871739 2.415441 3.274775 4.718074 7.783079
2025-11-23 1.218573 1.489742 1.856236 2.417121 3.319731 4.876568 8.336848
2025-11-30 1.199541 1.474355 1.849471 2.431231 3.385498 5.079416 9.041090
2025-12-07 1.166686 1.438692 1.812245 2.396375 3.366074 5.119184 9.358557
2025-12-14 1.134949 1.403649 1.774672 2.359146 3.339967 5.143102 9.641732
2025-12-21 1.102981 1.367414 1.734192 2.315546 3.300026 5.135747 9.841081
2025-12-28 1.095390 1.365224 1.743222 2.350592 3.400250 5.421719 10.942367
2026-01-04 1.088499 1.363691 1.752964 2.386974 3.505301 5.731714 12.241499
2026-01-11 1.079518 1.358805 1.757382 2.414660 3.596283 6.024149 13.622584
2026-01-18 1.060424 1.338760 1.738231 2.402257 3.610840 6.146457 14.462132